China’s Belt and Road Initiative has improved infrastructure connections with the country’s neighbours and so strengthened the gravitational pull of its economy. Chinese projects in Central Asia – in particular its railway and pipeline projects – have led to rapid increase in cargo across the China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) and energy movement between China and Central Asia.
CRE traffic from China to Europe and energy flows from Central Asia to Europe were hit by the fall-out of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This has increased Chinese and Central Asian interests in routes that avoid Russia, the so-called Middle Corridor. Yet risks remain that increased Eurasian connectivity would still help supplies reach Russia or increase Chinese invulnerability to maritime sanctions.
The BRI’s success stems from structural forces that cannot be stopped. The best EU response would not be to attempt preventing countries to work with China, but to direct its energy to improve Europe’s gravitational trade pull with complementary infrastructure projects. Worries about the strategic impact of the BRI programme should not stand in the way of tactical cooperation when in Europe’s interests. Synergy between the EU’s Global Gateway (GG) and China’s BRI can help make up for shortfalls in funding and political momentum on Europe’s side. Chinese and Central Asian interests behind improving Middle Corridor railway and pipeline connections can be made to work for EU interests.
Tactical synergy with China’s BRI can safely improve EU-China connectivity:
- Prioritise Middle Corridor investments, reduce Russian railway and pipeline influence on the region
- Synergy between the GG and the BRI, expand influence of European standards
- Strengthen the gravity pull of international trade towards Europe over time
Stay tuned with us by reading more: ReConnect China Policy Brief 28-Middling corridor risks